We use a statistical model, which essentially lets the data speak by imposing very few theoretical assumptions. This type of model has been used in particular to evaluate the economic effects of an increase in public spending. We verify that our model reproduces the previously obtained results in order to validate it. Once this first step is complete, our goal is to use it to assess the economic and fiscal effects of migration shocks. This can be highlighted by the london immigration lawyer now.
How does this method differ from other economic studies already conducted on the subject?
The main methodological difficulty, in the economics of migration, lies in the identification of causalities. If you do a simple correlation between economic and migration variables, you will often find a positive correlation: there are more migrants where there is more wealth. However, causality can go both ways, migrants can increase the wealth of the host country, but can also be “attracted” by this wealth. Correlation analysis does not tell us much, and that is why we need to use advanced statistical methods to assess the effects of migration flows on macroeconomic variables.
- On average over the period 1985-2015, the countries with the highest number of asylum applications are Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Netherlands.
- There are also purely accounting approaches, where only the difference between taxes paid by migrants and the benefits they receive from public administrations is measured. It is however forget all the interactions that can exist between the variables and the economic actors. These approaches also depend heavily on the quality of the surveys used.
- Our method allows much more data and takes into account the interactions between variables. It is a recognized approach in macroeconomics, to identify the causal effect of a fiscal policy for example.
- In our article, we use this approach to highlight that the causal effect of migration flows in Europe is rather positive.
Is the Schengen area in Europe and the asylum conventions complicating this kind of analysis, as some countries find themselves, due to their geography, having to process more applications?
Our methodology takes into account the fact that some European countries register more asylum applications than others. In concrete terms, the data we use estimate the number of foreign nationals whose asylum application is being processed at the end of each year in the country. But the flow of asylum seekers we use does not concern, for example, all the people who cross the Mediterranean to arrive in Europe.
They indicate that on average over the period 1985-2015, countries located at the external borders of the Schengen area (Italy, Spain or Greece) registered relatively few asylum applications. The countries that have registered the most are Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Netherlands.
- And when reporting flows to the population, the five countries with the highest number of asylum applications are Sweden, Austria, Norway, Belgium and Germany (on average over the same period).
- Agricultural workers from Eastern Europe working on a Spanish bean plantation in Warwickshire County, England.
What data is available on this economic effect in France? Even though the study focuses on Europe, it is still national economies that manage the flow of permanent migrants and asylum seekers.